For the first time in over a year, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market is showing signs of renewed life. While the media has focused on softening home prices and rising interest rates, recent data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) shows that home sales are rising again, with June 2025 marking the third straight month of growth.
But here’s the twist: prices are still declining year-over-year — and inventory levels are historically high. This rare combination offers a powerful window of opportunity for buyers.
In this article, SLG Home Buyer breaks down what’s driving this rebound, where to look, and how to capitalize on this temporary “sweet spot” before momentum shifts and competition heats up.
🔍 GTA Housing Market Snapshot – June 2025
| Metric | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sales (Seasonally Adj.) | 5,068 units | –2.4% |
| TRREB Sales (Unadj.) | 6,243 units | +8.1% MoM |
| HPI Benchmark Price | $978,200 | –5.5% |
| Average Home Price | $1,101,691 | –5.2% |
| Active Listings | 31,603 homes | +30.8% |
| New Listings | 19,839 homes | +7.7% |
| Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio | 32% | Below 40% = buyer’s market |
Sources: TRREB, WOWA.ca, Reuters, CREA, July 2025
🧭 Why the GTA Market Is Rebounding
Despite cooling prices, several factors are creating renewed interest among buyers:
1. Lower Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada has trimmed its overnight lending rate twice since April, now sitting at 4.25%. Lenders are passing on the savings:
- 5-year fixed mortgage rates in Ontario are hovering around 3.94%, down from 5.1% earlier in the year.
Lower borrowing costs are bringing fence-sitters back into the market, especially those previously priced out.
2. Pent-Up Demand
Many buyers waited out the high-rate environment in 2024. Now, with slightly lower rates and softening prices, they’re re-engaging.
3. Seasonal Activity + Market Sentiment
Spring and early summer are traditionally busier times in real estate. This year, though, buyers are acting with caution, creating a more balanced environment — but the demand is rising month-by-month.
📊 Chart Concept: GTA Sales Trend (Jan–June 2025)
A line chart showing a steady rise in monthly sales volume from March to June, with benchmark price trending flat/downward. This illustrates rising activity while prices remain buyer-friendly.
📍 Where SLG Home Buyer Clients Should Be Looking
Some parts of the GTA are rebounding faster than others — and some still have undervalued opportunities. Here’s a breakdown:
| Region | Avg Sale Price (June) | YoY Price Change | Market Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Region | $934,500 | –4.2% | Lots of detached homes, more inventory than Toronto core |
| Peel Region | $1,002,600 | –3.3% | Brampton & Mississauga showing strong sales volume |
| Halton Region | $1,179,000 | –4.8% | Stable luxury segment, good for move-up buyers |
| Toronto (416) | $1,152,000 | –5.5% | Condo prices dropped most — opportunity zone |
| York Region | $1,273,000 | –2.1% | More resilient pricing, but high inventory |
Tip: Buyers looking for family-sized detached or semi-detached homes will find Durham and Peel most attractive in 2025.
🏘️ Property Type Breakdown: Detached vs Condo vs Townhome
| Property Type | Avg Price (June) | YoY Price Change |
|---|---|---|
| Detached | $1.38M | –3.8% |
| Townhouse | $950,400 | –4.5% |
| Condo Apt. | $708,000 | –5.6% |
Condo buyers: Now may be your best window to get into the downtown core at a discounted price.
🛠️ SLG Buyer Strategy: How to Take Advantage
✅ 1. Act Before Prices Rebound
Sales are rising, but prices haven’t caught up yet. This is a rare lagging window where buyers can enter before bidding wars return.
✅ 2. Use the Low Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
At just 32%, sellers are seeing more competition. That means:
- You can offer below asking price
- Sellers are more flexible on conditions
- Negotiating extras (appliances, early access, repairs) is easier
✅ 3. Get Pre-Approved Now
With rates near multi-month lows and competition about to heat up, a locked-in rate and mortgage pre-approval gives you leverage in any offer situation.
💬 SLG Home Buyer Recommendations
Here’s how our team can help GTA buyers navigate this market effectively:
- Deal sourcing: We’ll help you find undervalued homes in buyer-dominant areas (e.g., Brampton, Oshawa, Scarborough).
- Negotiation support: Our team knows where sellers are most flexible — and how to structure offers that get accepted without overpaying.
- Fast-tracked deals: Need to move quickly? We’ll handle financing connections, legal teams, and paperwork.
🔄 What Happens If You Wait?
Here’s the risk of waiting too long:
- CREA and TRREB both expect a stronger rebound in late 2025 and into 2026
- Prices could rise once demand outpaces supply again — especially if BoC cuts rates again
📉 Forecasted Price Growth (GTA)
| Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3% | +2.2% | +4.6% (projected) |
🏁 Final Word: Seize the Timing Gap
The GTA market is at a rare inflection point:
- Prices are still soft
- Inventory is high
- Buyer leverage is real
- And yet… demand is quietly returning
If you wait until the rebound is obvious, you’ll be competing again. But if you move now — with expert guidance and strong financing — you can secure a great property before prices tick upward.