On April 28, 2025, Canadians re-elected the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney, securing a fourth consecutive term in office. Although the Liberals fell just short of a parliamentary majority, their victory signals a continued commitment to addressing Canada’s housing challenges, with significant implications for Ontario’s housing market.
Accelerated Housing Development
The Liberal government has pledged to construct 1.5 million new homes over the next several years, aiming to double Canada’s current rate of residential construction. This ambitious plan includes the creation of the Ontario Home Building Corporation (OHBC), which will collaborate with local communities, non-profits, and private partners to finance and build affordable homes. The focus will be on underutilized lands, such as strip malls and government properties, to increase housing supply efficiently.
Zoning Reforms to Promote Gentle Density
To address the “missing middle” in housing, the Liberals propose the BUILD Ontario Act, which would allow up to four residential units and up to four stories to be built as-of-right on any parcel of urban land zoned as “residential.” This reform aims to increase housing options for young families, middle-income households, and seniors looking to downsize.
Measures Against Land Speculation
The Liberal platform includes measures to curb land speculation, such as implementing a beneficial ownership registry to identify the true owners of real estate holdings. This initiative aims to increase transparency and discourage speculative practices that drive up housing prices.
Support for Renters and Vulnerable Populations
Recognizing the challenges faced by renters and vulnerable populations, the Liberals plan to develop homelessness reduction targets in collaboration with provinces and territories. Additionally, they propose increasing the Guaranteed Income Supplement by five percent for one year to provide immediate financial relief to low-income seniors.
Implications for Ontario’s Housing Market
Ontario, particularly the Greater Toronto Area, has experienced significant housing affordability challenges. The Liberal government’s renewed mandate and housing initiatives are poised to impact the province’s housing market in several ways:
- Increased Housing Supply: The construction of new homes and zoning reforms are expected to alleviate supply constraints, potentially stabilizing housing prices over time.
- Affordability Measures: Support for renters and vulnerable populations may provide immediate relief to those struggling with housing costs.
- Market Transparency: Efforts to curb land speculation could lead to a more transparent and equitable housing market.
However, the minority status of the Liberal government means that collaboration with other parties will be essential to implement these initiatives effectively.
Conclusion
With the Liberals officially winning a fourth term in Ontario, their renewed mandate is likely to support long-term housing supply growth, which could help ease price pressures — but not immediately. Their plans to build 1.5 million homes and introduce zoning reforms will take time to implement, meaning short-term housing supply will remain tight. As a result, house prices in the near future are expected to remain stable or rise modestly, particularly in high-demand areas. However, if the government follows through effectively on its supply-side strategies, we could see price growth moderate over the next few years, making homes somewhat more affordable.