When Will the Toronto Housing Market Crash? What to Expect

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It is painfully expensive to buy a house in most places, but Toronto is one of the priciest in the world. Recently, the market has seen a marked decline in interest, with fewer sales reported in July than last year.

Industry experts from across the country had predicted that the market would cool off this year. In the nation’s largest city, forecasts are reflecting even greater declines than originally anticipated. While the market remains in favor of sellers, many real estate investors are taking advantage of the conditions. 

A national economist recently shared that higher interest rates and unstoppable inflation made the economic landscape inhospitable for Canada’s housing market. Future spikes in mortgage rates will make it hard for many buyers to afford. This limitation to most potential buyers may lead to a correction in the market. 

First Signs of Change

A market correction began to emerge in March. Resale activity and home prices are expected to decline in the coming months, according to the latest RBC forecast. This year, home sales will decrease another 23% nationwide, according to the report.

Any market downturn following this one would significantly drop from record-high activity levels. This could lead to a drop in prices, with larger numbers in areas like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal.

How to Protect Yourself From the Crash

Don’t Panic

If you have an excellent long-term loan with a low loan-to-value ratio (LTV), there is no need to panic. The short-term drop in housing prices can cause you stress, but it won’t affect you in the long run because it will be temporary.

There is no doubt that if you do not have a favorable debt situation, you might find yourself in a lot of trouble in the future. When your LTV is high, your loan could be adjusted by your bank if they are getting nervous. Renewing your loan may be more challenging if your collateral value drops when you are up for renewal. Moreover, when you need to renew your loan, the rates may be twice what they were at the beginning of the loan.

You should concentrate on doing everything you can to facilitate this if you can. Don’t hesitate to shop around for lenders offering lower rates, don’t hesitate. The chances are that in the future, you can refinance your home again and get an even better deal than you did before. Staying with the investment for the long term is essential to reap the benefits. 

Prepare Your Investments

Stock markets generally decline when interest rates rise. There is a more significant challenge for investors to raise funding for new projects and to grow their businesses. Investing in fixed-income securities now has higher returns for many investors. 

All that means if your real estate portfolio crashes, your stock portfolio probably won’t be a refuge. You will be fine if you follow the long-term approach that we’ve discussed so far, you will be fine. When the market falls, be prepared to take advantage of opportunities by keeping a good amount of cash on hand for those opportunities. Unless the business model changes, do not sell out of your investments.

Investigate Exemptions

It is possible that if you own a REIT, your real estate portfolio will not be affected by changes in interest rates. Individual investors cannot hedge interest rate risk to the same extent as a REIT, which manages property at a much higher level than an individual investor.

Mortgage REITs are an excellent example of this since they make or purchase investment loans with the help of borrowed money. As a result, they can often coordinate short-term financing with the purchase of longer-term assets. In the event of a rise in interest rates, this can cause a lot of problems. Because interest rates are now higher than the yields on long-term investments, short-term notes need to be renewed.

Some REITs have implemented hedging programs to minimize the impact of increased interest rates. Some mortgage companies invest in adjustable-rate mortgages to increase their revenue along with the rate increase. Investing in the short term is another option. 

Toronto Housing Market Predictions – 2023

Home values are expected to drop by 24% from their all-time high in February 2022 through the end of 2023, as predicted by Desjardins Economic Studies. 

Despite the rapid growth in construction at the beginning of the pandemic, it predicts that single-family homes will decline dramatically, while apartment buildings, duplex homes, and condos will see a smaller decline. As the Bank of Canada commences lowering interest rates, the affordability of real estate will begin to improve for investors by mid-2023.

Factors That Will Contribute to the 2023 Market

Population Growth

There are projections that the number of people in Ontario will increase by nearly 40% over the next quarter century. This type of significant population growth in the province will help support future demand for housing.

Interest Rates

Even with the expectation that interest rates will rise in the next few years, they are still relatively low compared to the past decade. Thus, borrowing costs will remain low, making it more of a viable possibility for those to invest in the future.

Housing Supply

Ontario has experienced a decline in home sales in recent years, primarily caused by the effects of the pandemic. It is this factor that has contributed to the increase in prices. As a result, over the next few years, the province is expected to increase the construction of new homes.

Economic Growth

There will be an increase in the number of people moving to Ontario in search of work as the economy of the province expands. Due to the fact that people are relocating for work, housing demand is expected to increase as a result.

There was never going to be any quick recovery for the Canadian economy and housing market from the pandemic’s devastating effects. With the passage of time, it is becoming more and more likely that the housing market will recover in the future. While the markets may plunge in some areas, overall, the predictions are that it won’t be as bad as thought. Be prepared for a temporary downturn and protect your investments while waiting for the markets to bounce back in 2023.

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